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Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2

at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!

decks
4 (3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36 16-20-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3% avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
44.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1213 · median 1209 · range 1124–1311 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002 Q1 1194 Q3 1417 1648
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.5% 13 5-8-0 38.5% 41.2% 49.7% -0.1
Fire Crux Mage 11.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.4% -5.7
Wind Shadowstrike 8.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.2% -6.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.6% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 53.3% +1.9
Fire Exia 5.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Fire Suited 5.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 59.6% +7.2
Fire Aggro 4.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.2% -2.8
Fire Suzaku 4.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Wind Allies 4.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.9% +3.8
Fire Oblation 3.3% 0
Fire Slimes 3.3% 0
Wind Seiryuu 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.8% +20.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.5% 0
Water Fractal 2.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.5
Water Tera Mage 2.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.5% +18.5
Wind Astra Cleric 2.5% 0
Fire Byakko 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.6% 0
Water Genbu 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Fire Arcane 0.8% 0
Fire Neos 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.2% -12.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 0.8% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Allies 0.8% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.8% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.8% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.8% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.8% 0
Wind Arcane 0.8% 0
Wind Astra Diana 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.8% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Ranger Boots +1.00 1 0 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor +1.00 1 0 0
Evasive Maneuvers +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Coronation Ceremony +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Rallied Advance -1.00 0 1 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Purifying Thurible +1.00 1 0 0
Ciel, Loyal Valet -1.00 0 1 0
Viridescent Aetherstreak -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Turbulent Bullet -1.00 0 1 0
Prototype Pistol -1.00 0 1 0
Windpiercer -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31417/archetypes/Wind Wakeup Combo